Brazil fertilizer prices diverge in Q4 as StoneX sees firm nitrogen, stable potash

Brazil fertilizer prices are heading into Q4 2026 on split paths, with nitrogen likely to stay firm, potash stable and phosphates open to some correction, according to StoneX’s quarterly commodities outlook released on October 8. Soybean planting, which drives more than 40% of Brazil’s phosphate and potash use, is closing the main import window for both nutrients.

StoneX analyst Tomás Pernías said the usual post-planting price relief may be muted this year because supply, not demand, is the constraint. Reduced Middle East product, Chinese curbs on MAP and DAP exports and high sulfur costs are capping global phosphate output, despite early signs of better sulfur supply from Russia and Kazakhstan. Any drop in MAP or TSP prices would mostly help growers still buying for the second crop or 2027.

Nitrogen is the most exposed. Urea, ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate face support from Brazil’s seasonal imports for safrinha corn, Strait of Hormuz risk and possible Indian urea buying in December. “The nitrogen market remains very sensitive to the evolution of the Middle East conflict,” Pernías said.

Potash is the steadiest, with comfortable global stocks and no major supply risk flagged by StoneX. Pernías called it the nutrient with the best risk-return ratio for buyers right now.

The outlook follows a weak import year, with Brazil’s September fertilizer imports down 30% and a phosphate shortage idling local plants.

Source: Agrolink