Yara Q3 2026 EBITDA falls 16% to $675M as critical European gas costs surge 57%
Yara’s Q3 2026 EBITDA excluding special items fell 16% to $675M from $804M a year earlier, as a 57% jump in European gas costs outweighed modestly higher product prices, the Norwegian producer reported on October 22.
Earnings per share of $0.95 missed analyst expectations of $1.36, according to an Investing.com review of the results presentation. Higher energy costs cut $165M from EBITDA, against a $95M positive price and margin effect. The Dutch TTF gas benchmark averaged $18.1/MMBtu in the quarter, up from $11.5/MMBtu in Q3 2025, while granular urea FOB Egypt rose only 3% to $486/t.
The squeeze landed hardest in Europe, where segment EBITDA dropped to $73M from $191M. America’s EBITDA fell to $155M from $251M, and Africa and Asia’s to $47M from $67M. External deliveries slipped 4% to 5,786 kt, though Yara’s European nitrogen deliveries rose 4% against an estimated 5% to 10% decline across Western Europe.
Return on invested capital improved to 13.5% from 8.0%, and net debt fell $109M to $2,958M. Reliability problems, mainly at Yara’s Sluiskil complex, cost 390 kt of finished product so far this year.
The pending Gulf Coast Ammonia acquisition in Texas will shift 38% of Yara’s ammonia production energy exposure to U.S. Henry Hub gas, cutting its reliance on TTF-linked output from 50% today.
Source: Investing.com
Yara Q3 2026: key questions answered
Yara says about 20% of its finished products depend directly on TTF-linked production: 6% nitrates, 8% industrial urea and 8% fertilizer urea. It can also swap up to 1 million tonnes of European ammonia production for imports when production margins turn negative.
Year-to-date ammonia output was 4.7 million tonnes, down from 5.1 million tonnes in 2025, reflecting about 0.3 million tonnes of turnaround losses, the Pilbara outage and European curtailments. Finished product output fell to 14.4 million tonnes from 15.0 million tonnes.
Total 2026 capex is planned at $2.4B, including $1.3B for the Gulf Coast Ammonia purchase. Spending is set to fall to $1.2B in 2027 and to $0.7B to $0.9B a year in 2028 to 2030, mostly for maintenance.
Yara’s market data show EU nitrogen imports fell 30% in May to September to 1.1 million tonnes, while Brazil’s urea and ammonium sulfate imports dropped 21% in January to September to 2.4 million tonnes. U.S. urea imports for the 2026/27 season are tracking well below prior years.
Yara’s wheat example puts farmer revenue above nitrogen cost at $2,292 per hectare, up from $1,844 a year ago, as a 26% rise in wheat prices outpaced fertilizer costs. The economically optimal nitrogen rate held at 199 kg per hectare. European nitrate premiums rose 28% quarter on quarter, while NPK premiums fell 19%.
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