TTF gas price tops critical €100/MWh, squeezing Europe’s ammonia producers

The TTF gas price, Europe’s benchmark for natural gas, rose above €100 per megawatt-hour on October 28 for the first time since December 2022, raising feedstock costs for the region’s ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer producers heading into winter.

The November contract on the Dutch Title Transfer Facility was quoted at €100.425/MWh in mid-afternoon European trading, according to Intercontinental Exchange data cited by S&P Global. The benchmark settled 4.85% higher on the day, ING said, roughly three times its level before the war in the Middle East began in February.

Several pressures converged. LNG flows from the Persian Gulf remain disrupted, with QatarEnergy’s force majeure extended, while four unplanned outages at Norway’s Kollsnes and Kårstø processing plants cut pipeline supply. Forecasts for colder-than-normal weather in Northwest Europe added to concern about EU gas storage, which ING put just below 75% full. Investment funds raised their net long position in TTF by 14.3 TWh to 207.4 TWh in the latest reporting week.

For nitrogen producers, gas accounts for most of the cost of making ammonia. Yara has already cut 150,000 tonnes of ammonia and 115,000 tonnes of finished products in Q3 2026, mainly at its Ferrara plant in Italy, reducing its European gas consumption by more than 7% year on year, as Fertilizer Daily reported in its coverage of Yara’s Q3 2026 results.

The gap with North America is wide. U.S. producer LSB Industries reported an average natural gas cost of $2.93/MMBtu in Q3, while the TTF level of €100/MWh is equivalent to about $32.5/MMBtu.

“The key question is whether these higher prices will destroy demand,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING. Further European curtailments would tighten ammonia supply just as the Northern Hemisphere prepares for spring application.

Source: EconoTimes