Urea climbs back to $409/t as Hormuz negotiations progress and China eases its pricing strategy

Urea prices rose to $409 per metric ton on August 21, up 2.25% on the day, as signs of progress in diplomatic negotiations aimed at restoring Strait of Hormuz shipping reduced some of the geopolitical risk premium that has weighed on fertilizer markets since February. The benchmark remains down 8.3% on the month and 6.5% below year-ago levels, according to Trading Economics data based on contract-for-difference pricing.

China’s decision to relax urea export restrictions has added supply to the global market, contributing to the decline from April’s peak above $850 per metric ton. Chinese suppliers are expected to participate more actively in India’s current procurement rounds — the August RCF tender was the first in 2026 where significant Chinese participation was anticipated, according to Profercy analysis.

Seasonal factors are also tempering urea prices in August 2026. Northern Hemisphere planting has largely concluded, reducing near-term demand. Brazil, one of the world’s largest fertilizer importers, has postponed purchases and imported less urea than a year ago. Despite the correction, urea futures remain roughly 9% higher since the start of 2026, reflecting the structural supply constraints created by the Hormuz disruption and ongoing production outages in the Middle East.

Source: Trading Economics