Australia phosphate prices face 2027 risk as importers delay MAP/DAP buying after 28% surge

Australia phosphate prices face growing uncertainty for the 2027 winter cropping season, as the Middle East conflict keeps supply and pricing risks elevated, according to an Argus Media report cited by World Fertilizer. Australian importers usually arrange the season’s first MAP and DAP shipments for November loading, but high prices and bearish sentiment are prompting many to delay purchases.

The price gap is wide. Argus last assessed MAP at $802–836 per tonne FOB Saudi Arabia, up 28% from the start of November 2025. Saudi Arabia matters directly to Australian buyers. About 30% of the country’s MAP/DAP imports came from Saudi Arabia via the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics trade data.

Buyers are splitting into two camps. Some are locking in MAP/DAP and urea cargoes for early-2027 collection, while others are waiting until growers need product, suppliers told Argus. Because Australia has had little seasonal MAP/DAP demand since the war began, domestic prices have been partly shielded from global increases. That buffer disappears if importers buy at current levels, since they would have to lift domestic offers. The National Farmers Federation told Argus on September 22 that farmers will remain cautious heading into the next buying season.

Sulfur is a second pressure point. The Middle East supplies a large share of global sulfur, and high sulfur costs have raised phosphate production costs worldwide, a trend Fertilizer Daily tracked as sulfur topped $1,000 per tonne. Domestic supply is also limited. Australia’s only ammonium phosphate producer depends on Phosphate Hill, which the government backed with a $105 million loan earlier this year. November purchasing decisions will show how much of the global increase reaches Australian growers.

Source: World Fertilizer