Jansen potash targets Brazil as BHP readies 8.5mt mine, first cargoes seen in 2028

BHP is courting Brazilian fertilizer buyers for Jansen potash from its $15.3B Saskatchewan mine, but first cargoes are unlikely to reach Brazilian ports before 2028 and no supply contracts have been signed, AgFeed reported on October 8.

Brazil uses about 13.5 million tonnes of potash a year and imports 96% of it. Its only active domestic mine, run by Stratos, produces about 500,000 tonnes.

According to BHP figures cited by AgFeed, Jansen Stage 1 is 84% complete and should start production in mid-2027 at around 3.5 million tonnes, at a cost of $8.4B. Stage 2 is 16% complete, with first output expected by end-2031. Full capacity of 8.5 million tonnes a year is targeted by 2035, or about 10% of the global market.

BHP will sell business-to-business through importers and large fertilizer companies, not directly to farmers. A BHP commercial team has been in talks with Brazilian buyers since last year.

Cleber Vieira of consultancy Agroconsult told AgFeed that Canada already supplies at least half of Brazil’s potash. He said landed MOP that cost about $300/t a year ago now sits near $400/t, and that Brazilian demand could climb to 16 million tonnes within three years. Extra Jansen tonnes could cap prices, he said, though geopolitics make that hard to call.

For U.S. buyers, Jansen is part of a wider supply shift that analysts say could squeeze potash prices in 2027.

Source: AgFeed