WTO Hormuz trade tracker shows fertilizer shipments still near zero despite June safe-route MoU

The WTO-AXSMarine Strait of Hormuz Trade Tracker, updated through early September 2026, shows fertilizer shipments through the strait remain near zero despite the June memorandum of understanding between Iran and Oman on safe shipping route coordinates. Outbound fertilizer and LNG flows from the Persian Gulf through Hormuz have not meaningfully recovered from the near-total cessation that began in late 2025.

The tracker, a joint initiative of the World Trade Organization and maritime analytics firm AXSMarine, provides weekly data on vessel transits and commodity flows through the waterway. Before the conflict, Hormuz handled approximately 20% of globally traded nitrogen fertilizer — primarily ammonia and urea from Middle Eastern producers — along with substantial volumes of sulfur, a critical input for phosphate production.

The persistence of near-zero flows comes despite two diplomatic developments: the Iran-Oman agreement on safe shipping route coordinates reached in August, and the broader MoU framework that expired without a deal in August. Shipping operators have shown reluctance to resume transit without comprehensive insurance coverage and clearer military security guarantees.

The WTO Hormuz trade tracker data underscores the gap between diplomatic progress and the actual resumption of commercial activity. While nitrogen prices have corrected substantially from their April peaks — aided by China’s export quota release and reduced global demand — the continued absence of Hormuz flows means global fertilizer supply chains remain structurally rerouted. Middle Eastern producers have been diverting volumes through the Red Sea and Suez Canal or via pipeline alternatives, adding cost and transit time.

The sulfur shortage that emerged from the Hormuz blockade remains acute, with prices above $1,000 per metric ton and phosphate producers in Egypt, Brazil, and India curtailing output due to unsustainable input costs.

Source: WTO / AXSMarine