Middle East

Tehran’s forthcoming joint protocol with Oman would restrict Hormuz passage to “cooperating” vessels, creating a toll-like clearance regime at the chokepoint through which 30% of globally traded fertilizer normally flows.

CBAM’s definitive phase redirected trade away from high-carbon producers while the Hormuz closure cut off the Middle East, leaving European buyers scrambling for alternative sources.

Suppliers offered just 239,000 of the 521,000 tonnes sought, at prices ranging from $890 to $1,030/t CFR, signaling a severe and worsening global ammonia supply shortage.

All eight major fertilizers remain well above year-ago levels, with urea up 37% and anhydrous up 45%, though the pause ends a 13-week streak of significant weekly price gains.

The 400,000 t/yr Le Havre ammonia plant restarted the same day, but the incident adds to growing supply disruption pressure on European nitrogen markets.

The World Bank has warned fertilizer prices could climb more than 30% further in 2026 if the Hormuz blockade persists, as 260 million people already face acute food insecurity and urea has already spiked 53% from pre-conflict levels.

Yara’s CEO warns that up to half a million tonnes of nitrogen fertilizer production has been knocked offline, putting 10 billion meals per week at risk and threatening a food bidding war that would hit Sub-Saharan Africa hardest.

The vessel Mdl Toofan transited the Strait of Hormuz on May 9–10 carrying 55,000t of MAP loaded at Saudi Arabia’s Ras Al-Khair port, bound for Rio Grande, Brazil — only the second phosphate cargo to exit the Gulf since February 28.

Fertiglobe posted Q1 revenues of $915M (+32%) and adjusted net profit of $145M (+98%) as surging fertilizer prices more than offset a 12% decline in own-produced volumes due to Hormuz disruptions.

Five witnesses told the Senate Agriculture Committee that the fertilizer crisis predates the Iran war and won’t end when it does.

The Tel Aviv-based specialty minerals group beat prior-year earnings in every segment as higher prices for bromine and potash offset a $2.57B debt load from the January acquisition of Bartek Ingredients — and management now sees 2026 EBITDA clearing $1.5B at the low end.

A sulphur cargo under quarterly contract made it through after a lengthy delay, but eight other phosphate-linked vessels remain stranded — and Kuwait has raised its May sulfur price by $195/t to $765/t FOB as scarcity bites.

The AFBF’s survey of 5,700 producers during peak planting finds affordability worst in the South, where only 19% pre-booked fertilizer — and farm bankruptcies have now risen for three consecutive years.

India is shifting to collective procurement for phosphate and potash fertilizers amid Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions, with IPL’s first joint DAP tender drawing 2.3 million tonnes of offers — nearly double the volume sought.

With urea up 50% and ammonia up 30% since the Iran conflict began, the administration is deploying Jones Act waivers, Venezuela sanctions relief, and $1.5bn in DOE financing for new plants — while antitrust probes target fertilizer market concentration.